## How is it relevant to the events aftermath of the Brexit vote in the UK on June 23, 2016, especially in the context of trade and economy of the US with the UK in particular, and with the EU in general?

Economics Department

ECON202: Macroeconomic Theory

Summer 2016

Final Exam (Take Home); Due by before midnight on Aug 25 (by 11.59 PM);Total points: 30

General instructions:

1. Since the exam is take-home, you may not share with others in taking this exam. Also, you may not copy from the textbook materials or from any other sources in the Internet. Your answers must be in your own words based on your knowledge in the relevant topics in the course learning.
2. Post the exam in the designated turnitin assignment box in the blackboard by due date and time mentioned above with no exception. Missing the deadline will end up getting zero in the final exam and the course grade will be posted with zero points in the final exam adding to other scores for MT exams and HWs.
3. Answer all questions below with relevant graphs, equations, estimations, and explaining clearly in words. You may submit in either PDF or MS Doc format in the BB Assignment page.

Good Luck and Enjoy the Break!

1. a. Suppose the interest parity condition holds and that the domestic interest rate is greater than the foreign interest rate. What does this imply about the current versus future expected exchange rate? Explain. 1 pt
2. Suppose the one-year nominal interest rate is 2.0% in the United States and 5.0% in Canada. Should you hold Canadian bonds or U.S. bonds? Explain 1 pt
3. Suppose the CFO of an American corporation with surplus cash flow had \$100 million to invest last July 15 and the corporation did not believe it would need to utilize these funds to retool or expand production capacity for 1 year. Suppose further that the interest rate on 1 year CD deposits in US banks was .5%, while the rate on 1 year CD deposits in England (denominated in British Pounds) was 2% at the time. Suppose further that the exchange rate at that time was \$1.68 per British pound.
4. Suppose that now a year later the exchange rate is \$1.55 per US pound. What rate of return did the CFO earn on the investment in the British CD? (Note: a specific numeric answer is required for full credit.)                                                                          2pts.
5. What must the CFO have expected about the value of the British pound in \$ today to believe that investment in British CD’s was more profitable than investment in US CD’s last July?                                                                                     1pts

The following questions are based on open economy macroeconomic model. The answers must be written in your words along with graphical illustration. Without explaining in your words, the graphical illustration alone will not be credible. Also make sure you use the relevant symbols and notation on each of the lines and axis on the graph(s) to clearly indicate the working mechanism of variables.

1. a. ) Using the ZZ/Y and NX graphs, illustrate graphically and explain what effect a reduction in taxes will have on output, exports, imports, and net exports. Clearly label all curves and clearly label the initial and final equilibria. 2 pts

1. Using the ZZ/Y and NX graphs, illustrate graphically and explain what effect a reduction in foreign output (Y*) will have on output, exports, imports, and net exports. Clearly label all curves and clearly label the initial and final equilibria. 2 pts

1. Suppose the national output in the US is below the policy makers’ desired level of output and is experiencing a trade deficit. Assume that the policy makers’ goals are to achieve the desired level of output (i.e., full employment output) and balanced trade. Given this information, what type of exchange rate and/or fiscal policy can be used to achieve simultaneously these two goals? 2 pts
2. Using the ZZ/Y and NX graphs, illustrate graphically and explain what effect an increase in government spending will have on output, exports, imports, and net exports. Clearly label all curves and clearly label the initial and final equilibria. 2 pts

The following questions are based on fixed exchange rate and/or flexible exchange rate regime in an open macroeconomic model. The answers must be written in your words along with graphical illustration. Without explaining in your words, the graphical illustration alone will not be credible. Also make sure you use the relevant symbols and notation on each of the lines and axis on the graph(s) to  clearly indicate the working mechanism of variables.

1. a. Suppose the domestic and foreign interest rates are both initially equal to 4%. Now suppose the foreign interest rate rises to 6%. Explain what effect this will have on the exchange rate. Also explain what must occur for the interest parity condition to be restored. 2 pts

1. Assume the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate freely. Using the IS-LM-IP model, graphically illustrate and explain what effect an increase in government spending will have on the domestic economy. In your graphs, clearly label all curves and equilibria. 2 pts

1. Assume the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate freely. Using the IS-LM-IP model, graphically illustrate and explain what effect expansionary monetary policy will have on the domestic economy. In your graphs, clearly label all curves and equilibria. 2 pts

1. Assume that policy makers are pursuing a fixed exchange rate regime. Now suppose that the foreign interest rate falls. Discuss what policy makers must do to maintain the pegged exchange rate. Also discuss what effect this will have on domestic output and net exports. 2 pts

1. Assume the exchange rate is fixed. Using the IS-LM model, graphically illustrate and explain what effect an increase in consumer confidence will have on the domestic economy. In your graphs, clearly label all curves and equilibria. 2 pts

The following questions are based on fixed exchange rate and/or flexible exchange rate regime from the perspective of macroeconomic policy implications in an open macroeconomic model. The answers must be written in your words along with graphical illustration, if appropriate. Without explaining in your words, the graphical illustration alone will not be credible. Also make sure you use the relevant symbols and notation on each of the lines and axis on the graph(s) to  clearly indicate the working mechanism of variables.

1. a. Assume a country is in a fixed exchange rate regime such as China. Explain what factors might cause individuals to expect that a country will devalue its currency. Explain the various actions that policy makers can choose in response to this expected devaluation. 2 pts

Hint: As part of your answer, you may give the example of the most recent (Aug 11 and 12, 2015) devaluation of Chinese currency (Yuan or Renminbi) by more than 2% against its major composite currency index.

1. Assume a country is in a fixed exchange rate regime. Now suppose that individuals expect that policy makers will devalue its currency. Explain the various actions that policy makers can choose in response to this expected devaluation. 2 pts

1. Suppose the economy is operating below the natural level of output. Discuss the arguments for and against using devaluation in such a situation. 2 pts

1. Suppose the economy is initially operating above the natural level of output. In a fixed exchange rate regime, explain how the economy will adjust to this situation. 1 pt

Bonus Question (not Required): 5 pts

Since the Summer of 2015 markets around the world have been rattled by signs of a slowdown in growth of the Chinese economy, together with a massive sell–off in its stock market… plus a massive default by Greece on its debts to the IMF , the ECB and on its government bonds which will be averted only if it agrees to harsh budget austerity measures imposed by Germany and the rest of the European Union…In the process, the value of the \$ has risen against the Euro, the Yuan and many other currencies

1. Given the current condition of the US economy, do you think US policy makers would prefer to see the \$ rise in value, decline in value or stay at its current value? Discuss the advantages and disadvantages to the US economy at this time of a stronger vs. a weaker \$. Frame your answer in terms of the current Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply situation of the US economy. 2pts

1. How is it relevant to the events aftermath of the Brexit vote in the UK on June 23, 2016, especially in the context of trade and economy of the US with the UK in particular, and with the EU in general?                                     2 pts

iii. Draw an AS/AD diagram to illustrate your answers for both A) and B) above. Clearly label axes and the current position of AS, & AD relative to full employment RGDP….also indicate any shifts that would occur if the exchange rate of the \$ rose sharply against other major currencies                                                                                1pt